Indonesia’s online market category is highly dynamic and constantly evolving, with new brands, manufacturers, and sales platforms competing for dominance. 

For brands, online growth heavily depends on online market data. However, this reliance comes with risks, as brands often lack visibility into the true drivers of category sales numbers. One of the biggest challenges comes from fake sales, which artificially inflate online category size, distort category share indications, and create an uneven playing field between sellers. 

This issue is especially relevant to analyze in a market like Indonesia, where overall online growth is relatively low and many brands are seeing flat or even negative sales and market share indications. In such an environment, the presence of fake sales can be frustrating—brands may question how the category continues to grow so well, even as they work hard to grow but see little to no progress.

Competitors using fake sales may unfairly benefit from this practice and may not be performing as well as they appear, misleading stakeholders about actual market share and performance. Furthermore, the overall category size may appear larger than it truly is, while individual brand shares are underrepresented.

In theory, calculating market size seems straightforward. However, in reality, unforeseen variables must be accounted for, one of the most significant being fake sales. These transactions are not driven by actual end-consumers but by sellers themselves, resellers, artificially generated purchases, or others. 

Through new research, we estimate that actual end-consumer purchases on Shopee and TikTok Shop could be lower than reported sales—by up to 15% for Mall shops and 25% for Non-Mall shops—due to orders numbers generated by fake sales. In aggregate, 5-10% of all online sales may be affected by this phenomenon and hence over-stated in market reports. 

To support our estimate, we triangulated across four key sources:

• Large-scale analysis of the quantity and timing of reviews, where we spotted anomalies such as unusually high sales with very few reviews, and sharp sales spikes likely linked to fake transactions.

• Interviews and surveys with 200 medium to large online beauty sellers, which revealed that 5-30% of reported sales could be non-consumer in nature, including B2B and internal strategy.
• Platform feature analysis, where the presence of BNPL services and high-priced items suggested opportunities for irregular purchases used for cash withdrawal (Gestun).
• Cross-platform transaction pattern tracking, which helped us identify behavioral differences between Shopee and TikTok Shop, including stronger controls on fake sales in the latter.

Why Fake Sales Happen and How Widespread They Are

The motivation behind fake sales is simple. By artificially boosting sales numbers, a brand or shop appears more popular and trustworthy, increasing the likelihood of attracting real customers in the future.

The widespread use of fake sales raises significant concerns about the integrity of e-commerce data. While it provides brands with short-term advantages—helping them gain visibility and climb rankings—it distorts the industry in fundamental ways. The e-commerce market size may be overstated, meaning actual category share may be lower than recorded. Furthermore, fake sales create an uneven playing field, as some competitors may not be performing as well as they appear, misleading stakeholders about actual market share and performance.

Common Types of Fake Sales

Fake sales come in different forms, including:

• Self-Purchased Sales – Brands use different accounts owned by team members or relatives to buy their own products.
• Bulk Order-and-Refund Schemes – Large purchases are placed and later refunded, creating an illusion of strong demand.
• Coordinated Fake Order Model – Sellers connect with groups that offer fake order services, often found in Facebook communities. Once an agreement is made, fake buyers purchase products, but instead of real transactions, sellers ship empty packages. Once the package is marked as delivered, fake buyers leave positive reviews, which often have repetitive wording, overly positive feedback, and high ratings. These reviews further boost the shop’s credibility.

The Need for Action: What Can Brands Do?

As e-commerce continues to grow, it’s important to understand and address fake sales to ensure fair competition and accurate market tracking. 

While e-commerce platforms should ideally strengthen fraud detection and take stricter action against fake sales to maintain transparency and trust, their competing internal incentive to maximize sales volume makes this challenging. Because of this, market data providers play a crucial role in identifying and reporting these trends, offering brands a clearer picture of the real market landscape. 

For brands, understanding the real market landscape is critical to making strategic decisions—whether for pricing, distribution, or category expansion. Inflated sales figures can mislead brands into overestimating category size or underestimating their own market share, impacting both investment decisions and competitive strategy.

We, as a data provider, are continuously improving our methods to help brands navigate these challenges with more accurate insights, ensuring the most reliable insights for decision-making. Our category tracking reports already include fake sales scoring, giving brands a clearer view of the true market landscape. With this deeper understanding, they can make more informed decisions and maintain a competitive position.