Southeast Asia’s e-commerce journey has been nothing short of a rollercoaster,—fast-paced, unpredictable, and full of twists. In just over a decade, we’ve seen the rise (and fall) of platforms, dramatic shifts in consumer behavior, and a flood of sellers rushing to capture market share.

Now, the big question is: What should we expect around the next corner? Before diving into our outlook for the future, let’s reflect on the evolution of Southeast Asia’s e-commerce using a simple acronym: E3SR.

E — Early Stage

First, the E (Early) stage marks the beginning of Southeast Asia’s e-commerce journey, which started around 2012–2015.

During this period, several platforms emerged. For example, Lazada was one of the first major players in the region, founded in 2012. Shopee, founded in 2015, launched its platform through a mobile app and quickly gained momentum.

At this stage, platforms were setting up their businesses and identifying their value propositions in the market—leading us into the second phase of Southeast Asia’s e-commerce journey…

S1 — Steady Growth

Starting from 2015, Southeast Asia’s e-commerce platforms began to grow steadily, expanding the size of the online market year by year.

In fact, the region’s e-commerce market continued growing at an average rate of more than 45% annually from 2015, reaching nearly $50 billion USD by 2019.

Initially, we expected this steady growth to continue through 2024—but that assumption was soon interrupted…

S2 — Sudden Growth

The COVID-19 pandemic became a game-changer for e-commerce from 2020 to 2022, driving an additional $65 billion USD between 2019-2024 in sales beyond the long-term trend. This rapid growth attracted new market entrants looking to capitalize on the surge in online shopping. During COVID-19, e-commerce experienced surging growth due to lockdown policies. We observed noticeable shifts in consumer behavior—among both new and existing customers—with an incremental proportion in sales across all categories, indicating a strong preference for online shopping during the pandemic. 

S3 — Slowed growth

However, starting from the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, as the restrictions were lifted and several physical stores reopened, customer behavior shifted once again and led to a natural slowdown in online growth. 

For many sellers, this slowdown came as a shock. After years of riding a wave of 40–90% annual growth fueled by rapid platform expansion, they suddenly found themselves facing single-digit growth rates. The abrupt change left both platforms and sellers unprepared, struggling to adjust to the new reality.

R — Recovery Growth

However, in the recent years (2024 and 2025), we’re now seeing renewed momentum in Southeast Asia’s e-commerce market. According to our recent Pulse Report “Southeast Asia e-commerce grew by nearly 15% in 2024, however, the growth rates are slower than a few years ago”. Our chart above supports this statement, showing that while e-commerce in Southeast Asia continues to grow, the pace has slowed. 

Here’s what we predict next…

In our opinion, it is too soon to label Southeast Asia as a fully ‘mature’ e-commerce market. The e-commerce market remains much smaller than the offline market, accounting for around 30–35% of total customer spending excluding large purchases like motor vehicles and homes; however, online spending is expected to continue increasing, indicating significant growth potential.

E-commerce should no longer be seen as an “emerging” channel- it is a crucial part in SEA consumers’ lives. In the short-to-medium term, we expect continued growth at around 15% per year, but in the longer term (2030 onwards), e-commerce platforms will need to invest more effort to sustain momentum and drive further expansion, and this will be a fascinating opportunity for online sellers.

This is what we call the “Goldilocks zone” of e-commerce growth (more information in this recent LinkedIn post): 

• Growth rates are lower than in the hypergrowth era, but they are being measured against a much larger base, which is an enormous absolute dollar value.
• Online channels are still expanding faster than offline, meaning that a majority of the total online + offline growth in many categories is now coming from e-commerce.
• For FMCG companies, this makes online channels the most critical battleground for winning incremental growth.

 

Lower-Hanging Fruits: What Actions Should Sellers Take?

At Cube, we see this environment as an exciting opportunity for e-commerce sellers. A 15% growth rate may seem modest compared to the early years, but it still represents significant absolute sales growth. Sellers who adapt to this more competitive, mature environment will be well positioned to capture their share of the market.

In particular, we see several actionable “lower-hanging fruits” for sellers can focus on today

• Target underpenetrated or fast-growing segments
• Participate in major platform sales events
• Increase reach by expanding presence across marketplaces
• Strengthen product content and reviews

These strategies could be key strengths that enable sellers to outperform the market and stay ahead of competitors.

By staying close to e-commerce market trends and platform innovations, sellers can move quickly to capitalize on these opportunities—and be among the first to unlock growth in this next phase of Southeast Asia’s e-commerce journey.