2024 was a defining year for TikTok Shop, TikTok’s global e-commerce unit. It had to balance continued growth in its early winner markets in Southeast Asia with breaking through in the West, all while navigating a complex regulatory battle in the United States.

A constant flurry of rumours, news, market launch changes, and publications of differing data points made it challenging to assess TikTok Shop’s true performance throughout the year. With the year firmly behind us though, doing that is easier now: 2024 was, on the whole, a very good year for TikTok Shop. 

In this Pulse report we share our perspective on TikTok Shop’s global performance in 2024, as well as our view on the significant opportunities ahead in 2025.

First things first: Getting the numbers right

TikTok Shop doesn’t report its numbers. But others do. And the numbers that have been coming out appear to be all over the place. Total 2024 GMV for example, has been reported anywhere from $32.6bn USD by Tabcut, to $40bn USD by Latepost.

In Cube’s perspective, both these numbers can be correct, if we interpret them to mean slightly different things.

The headline number that is often talked about for e-commerce platforms is Gross Merchandize Value, or GMV. In our understanding, Gross refers to all the transactions on the platform, regardless of whether they were subsequently cancelled or returned. That number for TikTok Shop was $42bn USD according to our models.

An alternative number is the Net Merchandize Value, or NMV, which deducts undelivered orders and cancelled transactions from the GMV. In doing so, we believe it is a better representation of sales as it measures the actual amount being spent by shoppers. That figure, according to Cube estimates, was $33bn USD last year.

2024 in review: Strong sales growth, new categories, resumption of global expansion

2024 began with a flurry of activity for TikTok Shop as Indonesia came back online after a brief regulatory shut-down and the US market began a critical second quarter after its soft-launch in September 2023. Several highlights defined the year’s performance:

• Global sales more than doubled: We estimate that TikTok Shop’s global sales volume (on net merchandise value basis, after excluding cancelled and returned orders) reached US$ 33bn, up approximately +135% versus 2023. All markets grew well, with even the ‘slowest’ markets growing by 45% or more. 
• The US market became a serious force: TikTok Shop’s launch in the US in September 2023 marked a new chapter of global growth after its early successes in Southeast Asia. That bet paid off in 2024, where even TikTok’s ongoing regulatory battle didn’t manage to hold back growth.
  
  We estimate that US TikTok Shop sales touched $10bn of GMV (while the NMV, which is a different metric as outlined in the image above, reached US$9bn) in 2024, making it the largest global market for TikTok Shop and roughly 10x bigger than the UK, TikTok Shop’s only other prior Western market that launched in 2021 
• Sustained growth in Southeast Asia growth: Southeast Asia is TikTok Shop’s first growth engine, and 2024 was a key test of whether the app could sustain growth after dominating the region’s beauty, personal care, and fashion categories – where it had already reached a dominant position in most markets by the end of 2023.
  
  We observed growth sputtering in several key Southeast Asian markets in the second and third quarters, but a particularly strong Q4 performance capped 2024 with regional sales growth of more than 65%. Critically, sales in new frontier categories such as food & beverage and electronics started to pick up, indicating that TikTok Shop can be a relevant e-commerce channel in a broader set of categories 
• Global market expansion resumed: When TikTok Shop launched in the US market in September 2023, it was conveyed as the beginning of a series of rapid launches across the Western world, including in Europe and North/South America. Several factors, including regulatory challenges in the US and slow growth in the UK market, however led TikTok to change course, and for most of 2024 it looked like new markets were ‘off the table’ indefinitely.
  
  That changed again in December 2024 with the launches of TikTok Shop in Ireland and Spain, marking the re-commencement of TikTok Shop’s global expansion. We have previously covered the strong launch momentum of TikTok Shop in Spain here on Cube Pulse. 

Our verdict: 2024 was a complex year for TikTok Shop with many challenges to solve, but strong performance across new and existing markets – especially towards the end of the year – proved that the platform still has a chance to become a global success.

What’s next in 2025? High ambitions, and plenty of opportunities and challenges ahead

Just like last year, TikTok Shop’s 2025 has started with a flurry of activity and encouraging indicators. The US market is now back online (and the app, which was briefly taken off the Android and App stores, is available again), Spain and Ireland are ramping up, and Southeast Asia has good momentum after a particularly strong Q4. The company itself, according to Chinese tech media outlet Latepost, is also bullish on 2025 with a 100% global growth target for the year. But what will actually materialize? Here are our predictions:

• Several new market launches: With TikTok finally launching in Spain and Ireland in December 2024, it seems highly likely that the company’s expansion strategy is back in motion. Italy, Germany, and France have been floated as coming European market launches, along with Mexico and even Brazil and Japan in other regions.
  
  While TikTok seemingly paused its expansion plans last year to consolidate focus and investment in the US ahead of the TikTok ban show-down, it seems more likely that the company will now seek to hedge its large GMV reliance in the US with several other high-profile market launches. 
• Continued growth in core markets: In its early years, TikTok Shop was highly reliant on growth coming from the ‘sweet spot’ of beauty and fashion (its key early categories) coming from high-impulse consumer journeys (predominantly from live streaming and short-form videos). A key question was always whether TikTok Shop would be able to generate and sustain growth beyond this segment.
  
  After 2024, that seems more and more likely. In Southeast Asia, where TikTok Shop has been highly concentrated in its top two categories and in sales derived from live streaming, we finally started to see break-out growth in new and less impulse-driven categories such as home, office, and electronics. Those new categories should provide ample growth runway for TikTok Shop in 2025.
  
  In the western markets (US and UK), TikTok Shop already has a more varied business mix, and one that relies more on the Shop tab in favor of live streaming and purchases driven directly by short-form videos. This more balanced mix of purchase journeys should support continued growth in 2025. 
• US scrutiny and vagaries will continue: The re-election of Donald Trump helped TikTok dodge the impact of Joe Biden’s strict “divest-or-ban” decree from 2024, but the app is not quite safe yet. Questions about the ownership of TikTok in the US – and by implication also TikTok Shop – continue to hang in the air. Although the risk of an outright ban are now meaningfully reduced, we expect to see more twists and turns before a final settlement is achieved.  
• Stronger efforts to woo brands to sell on TikTok: TikTok Shop has proven a powerful e-commerce channel for sellers in many categories, but also one that requires new and advanced capabilities in disciplines such as live streaming, content creation, and affiliate management. The consequence is that TikTok Shop’s seller landscape is dominated by ‘challenger brands’ and small digital-native sellers, with only few ‘incumbent brands’ – those with the very strongest digital capabilities – competing for sales.
  
  For TikTok Shop to break through as a leading e-commerce platform, it has to offer a full and varied assortment, including official presence of the brands that consumers know, trust, and love. This is a key challenge for TikTok Shop, and one that we believe the platform will work hard to solve in 2025.
  
  We expect TikTok Shop will work hard to scale its large-account management teams, and provide very attractive support and trade terms for large new brands who are willing to join the platform. 
• Slow but steady steps towards profitability. Following in the footsteps of Shopee, its largest competitor in Southeast Asia, TikTok Shop has also been gradually increasing its commission rates. They remain competitive as compared to the dominant incumbents in its markets, and will likely remain so, but the platform is now large enough that it can afford to ask sellers to pay more without fearing that they would leave. 

If 2024 was the year for TikTok Shop to prove resilience in Southeast Asia and an ability to break into Western markets, 2025 will be about proving that the app has the potential to be a global e-commerce leader. Whatever comes next, it is bound to be an exciting ride.